Transcript Episode 101: The 4% Rule

• What is the 4% Rule?
• First and foremost, it’s not a “rule”. It’s the 4% safe withdrawal theory.
• “Would it work for retirement?” The short answer is No,
  there’s too much left to chance when using that theory.
• Stock and Bond market corrections can change with interest rates.
  If you’re getting 2% or 3% returns, it’s not enough money.
• You need to have a million bucks to get $40,000 a year, and even then, you’ve got less than a 50% shot that it’s going to work out.
• Timeline: when you actually need to start using the money
• Money must be taken out of IRAs or 401K plans
• Timing the Sequence of Returns
• Look at your lifetime tax bill (not just this year)
• All-Hands Analysis

Narrator

This is Retire South Shore Radio, a weekly program designed to educate you on all your retirement options and introduce you to Mark Rowlette, founder of South Shore Retirement Services. For the latest on free seminars, to obtain a report or to set up a consultation, please visit RetireSouthShore.com for Retirement Services and real world retirement solutions. Looking at the whole picture to design a complete strategy, including retirement planning, Medicare decisions, and legal documents. Now, here’s Mark Rowlette. And your host, Jordan Rich.

Host Jordan Rich

Hello again, welcome. This is another edition of Retire South Shore Radio here in 2022. Great to be with you. I’m Jordan Rich along with Mark Rowlette. He is the founder the president and the chief cook and bottle washer with a great team over at South Shore Retirement Services in Hingham, Mass.

Is that still an expression that anybody understands anymore? Chief cook and bottle washer? I guess if you’re from your country, right?

Mark Rowlette

It’s funny I haven’t heard that expression a long time. But my father in law used to say that he was the janitor and the CEO of his company when he when he had it. So yeah, I’m not quite that that way. But pretty close.

Host Jordan Rich

Okay, well, you’re a very important cog in the wheel. But you have a great team, the All Hands Analysis team, which we’ll talk about, which really helps people find comfort in their retirement and find safety and, and actually a lot of joy. So today, Mark, I want to bring up a term of art that we hear a lot about, people have asked you and have asked me to talk about this on the show. It’s known as the 4% rule. So I’ll have you define it, and then we’ll explore what it’s all about.

Mark Rowlette

Like you mentioned a minute ago, the All Hands Analysis – we try to do is look at every aspect of somebody transitioning or has just transitioned into retirement or thinking about it. And in the next few years, there’s certain things that they need to address or that they should be addressing. And that’s what the All Hands does. So, you know, growing their money and making sure that their wealth is growing in in the right way – tax strategies, making sure that health insurance and Medicare and everything is done correctly, Social Security squared away, estate planning. What the number one thing that people generally do when they come into us first is they want to talk about income, right? They want to talk about “how am I going to safely get the money that I need on a monthly and annual basis to cover the expenses that I have for me and my family going forward.” So income is huge. And that’s where that 4% rule that everyone talks about is.

I wanted to talk about 4% rule for some people that might have already heard about it. For those of you who don’t know about it, I’ll explain it to you. But first and foremost, people ask me “Hey, my existing adviser said we’re going to use this 4% rule. Can it work for my retirement?”

And say yes, it can work for your retirement. They ask “would it work for my retirement?” And my short answer is no, it won’t work for your retirement. But let’s explore it. Let’s talk about that today.

What is the 4% rule itself?

Well, first and foremost, it’s not a “rule”. When people say this is the “rule” it sounds like. “this is the way and this is how it’ll work. It’s guaranteed.” And it’s not a rule. It’s a theory. It’s the 4% safe withdrawal theory, if you will.

So what is it? Back in the early 90s, economists who generally don’t agree on anything, came up with this theory. They said if you had an invested portfolio of stocks, bonds and mutual funds,

(and quite honestly, when they first came out with it, they said it didn’t really matter what the mix is, then they evolved it into a 60/40 mix of 60% bonds 40% equities.)

.. and you took 4% out of that portfolio on an annual basis adjusted for inflation, you had a little bit more than a 90% probability that that money will last you for your retired life, which at that point was pegged at 30 years.

There are a number of things in that that are a problem. Number one, that was the early 90s, right? The world was a different place. Interest rates were completely different in the early 90s. We’re in 2022  now.

So the probability of that panning out now is significantly less than half of the time, right? I make this joke sometimes at seminars about this analogy, because when you say to people that you’ve got a less than a 50% shot, this will work, they’re like, “Okay, well, you know, that’s  the way it is.”

I say, we’ll change that to something completely different. Let’s assume that after tonight’s seminar, we all decided that we’re going to go to Aruba for the weekend. And we all met at Logan Airport. We were all going to board a flight that was going to take us from Logan Airport. But before we got on the flight, there was a sign above the door that said you have a 50% chance that this plane is going to crash before we get to Aruba. Then I posed the question, “Would anyone get on that plane?”

No absolutely not. But time and time again, people use that same methodology for their money. They’re just taking it out and winging it and hoping that it’s going to last. It doesn’t pan out that way.

Also, when the 4% “safe withdrawal rate” came out, they said, 30-year retirement, it was like mid 90s. And quite honestly, there haven’t been very many people who use that theory, because 30 years hasn’t really passed yet, if you know what I mean. Back in the 70s, and 80s, people generally didn’t live 30 years in retirement.

There are a lot of flaws in that run-of-the-mill idea of saying, “just take the money out, take around 4% that and you’ll be good.” We have a problem with that, especially in retirement, in that there’s just too much left to chance when using that theory.

Host Jordan Rich

So really, you’re talking about not falling prey to “sloganeering” because it is a sort of a catchphrase now in the industry. And you have to be very careful. One of the things about the All Hands Analysis approach that we talked about, religiously, is the fact that it’s an overview, specifically targeted to an individual’s retirement plan. There’s no cookie cutter approach. And you had a great expression about the rule of thumb.

If you rely only on the rule of thumb, your thumb is not always the right finger. Let’s put it that way.

Mark Rowlette

Yeah, quite honestly when it comes to something as critically important as your ability to sustain your lifestyle for 20 or 30 years in retirement? Would you ever really rather fake a rule of thumb or a customized strategy, something that was specifically designed for your situation? That’s not even really a question where I would expect an answer from someone. Because you’d know what the answer would be.

Host Jordan Rich

Well, we’re not talking about living in a vacuum, because so many things determine our future, including tax structure, including the economy, stock market, so many issues at play. And that’s where you have to keep your eye on the ball. That’s what you do. And your team does.

Mark Rowlette

Yes though not to say the theory couldn’t work out, because it could, absolutely. Somebody could very easily continue to sustain money. But if you think about it, we’re in a really unique time in the markets right now. The stock market continues to baffle everyone and be at all-time highs, while at the same time, interest rates are historically low. (January 2022)

And to keep it simple, generally, when interest rates go up, bonds and fixed values go down, right? Interest rates are meant to work in an opposite direction. Bond values are meant to work in the opposite direction of the stock market. So if the market were to correct and go down, based on the interest rates that we have right now, let’s say you’re getting 2% or 3% on your accounts, that’s not enough money.

If you have 40%, or 50%, or 60% of your money making 2% or 3%, and you need 4% of that money to live, that’s going to put a huge strain on you.

So I’m not saying it can’t work. But just think of this logically. Look at the mathematics of things. What happens in a worst-case scenario, or even not even worst case, just the inevitable happens? Where things that continue to go up and up and up, at some point have to go in the opposite direction. It’s just always the way it’s been.

I can’t stress it enough that it’s not that it will never work. It could work, but there might be a smarter way to look at doing this. It’s not only about people who are so concerned about running out of money that that’s their main focus. “I don’t want to run out of money, I don’t want to run into money.”

And then they ultimately spend too much money and they run out of money, right, and they’re stuck. It’s the people who are so concerned about running out of money, that they don’t give themselves the retirement that they quite honestly deserve. They worked their backsides off for 20 or 30 or 40 years, socked away as much money as they could comfortably afford, and then are terrified that they’re going to run out of money because they really don’t have any game plan or strategy in place. So they don’t do all of the stuff that they wanted to do. And then they pass away and they leave a big pile of money.

Well, if they had a proper strategy and looked at this more, from a methodical standpoint, they could have maybe spent more money during their lifetime They could have enjoyed themselves more, given more money to their kids during their lifetime and just had a general better “second act” or “third act”, because they had a better strategy in place.

Host Jordan Rich

As you’re listening to this. Dear friends, I know you have questions about your own situation. There is a way to get an instant answer or at least instant information as quickly as can be assembled. That’s with a Free, No-obligation 15-minute Phone Consultation. It’s absolutely free. So many of the times these are questions Mark and his team can answer on the phone, or do a little research for you. You don’t have to be a client. That’s the whole point. The whole point is getting information out there to set it up for the Free 15-Minute No Obligation Strategy Call. You can go to RetireSouthShore.com. There’s an easy to use grid system. The booking system is easy on the grid.

Or you can call this phone number 781-836-4214. That’s the office number to set it up. To make an appointment for a free no obligation consultation 781-836-4214. And yes, if you call the number during the weekend, when we’re on the air, you will get a call back Monday guaranteed. So Mark, the 4% rule, how often do people come to seminars and bring this up? Because I’m getting more and more feedback from listeners that they’re concerned with this.

Mark Rowlette

When I mention it at workshops, or webinars, and when I talk to people or say the words, half of the people will nod and say, “Yeah, I’ve heard of that.” And the other half of the people who say “I’m not really 100% sure of it.”

It’s a common term that people have become used to hearing. The scary part is that a lot of these larger firms have recent literature that still promotes it, and says it’s fairly safe to do something like that.

It just gives you a cause for concern, as I said to you before we jumped on the air. I’ve heard so many times from clients, “I don’t need to be a millionaire, I just need $40,000 A year.”

But that requires you to have a million dollars under that theory, right? You need to have a million bucks to get $40,000 a year, and even then, you’ve got less than a 50% shot that it’s going to work out. The way that I would look at it is “What’s a smarter way to look at the 4% safe withdrawal rate?”. Because not everyone even needs 4%.

Let’s just look at that logically first. The first thing I would have people do is add up all your savings, right? See all of the money that you’ve been able to put away during your working life. Add it all up, come up with a number, and see if 4% of that number (coupled with Social Security or a pension or whatever else you have) is enough to cover your income need.

If the answer is NO, then you have to go back to the drawing board. Look at the budget, look at what you’re spending money on, look at your timeline as to when you’re actually going to need to start using that money. Look at the savings levels that you have to see if you need to make adjustments to that. So that would be first and foremost. Then when you look at that map, if the answer is “Yes, I have more than enough money to do this 4% safety”, that’s great. But you still have more to plan. You still have more that you need to be doing. That’s what I wanted to address.

Host Jordan Rich

We’re going to take a short break and when we come back more on this important issue, the 4% rule that you may hear about and the fact that it’s not a “rule”, like an amendment to the Constitution. This is something that is very flexible depending on your situation. This is again is why we suggest for you a Free No-obligation Consultation. Go to RetireSouthShore.com or call that number 781-836-4214.

There is one rule that is constant – we have to take a break. We’ll do that and come right back and come right back.

[Begin pre-recorded segment]

Narrators

I need $85,000 A year in retirement. So how much do I need to save? The All Hands Analysis team at South Shore Retirement Services and hang up gets this question quite often. The numbers are different but the concern is the same. “Will I have to worry about money in retirement?”

The answer is simple. It’s different for everyone and the folks at South Shore Retirement Services know that and can help you. There All Hands Analysis team will break down everything you need to know so that you can enjoy a stress-free retirement, With all of your needs taken care of under one roof. From retirement income planning, investments and wealth protection, tax planning, health care and Long Term Care, legacy and estate planning – and more.

The All Hands Analysis team itself who are Retirement Services takes the worry off your shoulders, making sure that you and your family have a solid retirement plan in place. Schedule your Free 15-Minute Strategy Call today. It’s so easy. Just visit RetireSouthShore.com.

Hello, this is Jordan Rich reminding you of upcoming free seminars offered by Mark Rowlette and the team at South Shore Retirement Services coming up January 26 and 27th about taxes in retirement. Both of these are happening at the Abington Ale House and Grill in Abington and both happening at 6pm. Again, January 26 and 27th – a taxes and retirement seminar you don’t want to miss. To register for this free event visit RetireSouthShore.com.

[End prerecorded segment]

Host Jordan Rich

Welcome. This is Retire South Shore Radio. I’m Jordan Rich. We’re coming to you on weekends with important information. With me is Mark Rowlette, the founder and president of South Shore Retirement Services located in Hingham, Massachusetts. Many of our clients are enjoying themselves in sunny Florida and Arizona and California making us all envious, but we’re thrilled for them. And they’re doing quite well. Mark, we’ve been talking about the 4% rule. I think it’s important to reiterate what it is for people just joining us.

Mark Rowlette

When you say we are thrilled for them, this past week. It was probably the coolest that I’ve been in a while. Yeah, it’s a little rough to head over to the office.

We were chatting about the 4% safe withdrawal rule that, again, i’s not a rule. They call it a rule, but to me, it’s just a theory. A “rule” kind of leads you to believe that it works every time and (the 4% rule) really doesn’t work most of the time.

So, you know, looking at the 4%, safe withdrawal rate, for those of you who are just joining us after the commercial break, really, it’s just trying to build some smart way of taking money out of your accounts. Back in the early 90s, most economists said that if you took 4% out of your account on an annual basis and adjusted for inflation, then you had 90%-plus probability that money would last you the rest of your life.

But that was the early 90s. It doesn’t work like that anymore, right? So less than a 50% shot. And that was as of last year, the beginning of last year 2021.

I was reading an article recently that the cost of goods in this country in 2021, went up by 7.1% last year. So it’s a pretty staggering increase. What do you do? You don’t want to not necessarily retire. But what I would suggest, and what I mentioned just before the break was, the smarter way is to look at how to take money out of your accounts, and firstly trying to figure out how much you need to take out of your accounts.

So add all your money off right out all the monies that you’ve saved, look at the different tax qualifications of some of the money because some will be taxed, and some won’t be taxed. And take 4% out of that account, right? And if you can safely do that every single year going forward, well, that’s great, right? But if you can’t do it, and it’s not enough money, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to last? Then you still have some planning to do. You need to go back to the drawing board, and figure out what your budget is and what you actually need from an income perspective. However, that budget might change over time. What your timeline is, as to “Alright, are you retiring today, tomorrow, a year, five years from now?”. Figure out what your timeline is, and then look at how much you can comfortably afford to save, right? How much money you can save on a monthly basis in order to maybe increase the amount of savings that you might have?

Host Jordan Rich

So the answer is, for some people, 4% could really be 3%, or 4½%. For some people it’s 2%.

Mark Rowlette

Right. So here’s the thing, Jordan, because you raise a really good point. The 4% safe withdrawal rate happens to coincide nicely (or not nicely) with approximately what people will have to take out of their accounts when they hit required minimum distribution age.

You’re going to have to take this money out. Now if you don’t need it, you can reinvest it and do something else with it. But you still have to take this money out if its IRAs or 401K plans. But let’s assume that the answer is yes.

Like you just said, even if you have enough money saved, you still have to do some planning. You still have to think about the long-term logic of what you’re going to be doing in retirement. Most people, when they go first into retirement, go into what we call the “Go-Go years”, where they say

“But I got to do this stuff. I’ve put it off for the last 20 years, I want to travel!” I was with clients a couple of weeks ago who are heading off to Australia for two months, because they’re both just retired.

So you’re going to need more money in those years, and maybe less money in the “not-so-go-go” years – the “no-go” years, so to speak.

So that’s number one, making sure that you know that, “Alright, I’m going to have a bigger budget in the early years and maybe a lesser budget in the future years,” then again, you have to look at this from the perspective of “Do you have the stomach to ride the ups and downs in the market?”

Yeah, in your 40s and 50s, maybe you did. But when you’ve transitioned into retirement, maybe you don’t have as much of a stomach to watch your life savings go down 15 or 20%, as you’re pulling money out of those accounts. You might not have the just the belly for it. There’s nothing wrong with that. For most people going into retirement, if you don’t have to take a lot of risk, what’s the point in taking risks like that? It’s not going to change your world if you make 1% or 2% or 3% more on your accounts.

But it could change your world if you lose 3% or 4% or 5% or 6% or 10% on your account in a given year. And then most importantly, is there anything that you can do to put yourself in a better position to make things easier, make things safer, make things more predictable? And the short answer is probably.

Perhaps there is something that can put you in a better position (and this is kind of self-promoting the All Hands Analysis) anything that can put more dollars in your pocket in a safer way with less risk, less volatility. I’m not saying you’re sticking it all under the mattress. But if there’s anything that you could do that puts you in any of those positive positions, wouldn’t you want to know about it ahead of time? Why would you not want to know about it? And if you went through the All Hands Analysis or whatever process you go through, and everything is exactly the way it should be? Well, that just reaffirms that what you did is right and puts you in a more comfortable position transitioning into retirement.

Host Jordan Rich

What you said about timetable is really important because so many of us live in the moment because we’re so busy. But when you get to the point where you can sit down with a strategist and go over the process,what you said really hit home. It’s not just looking at next year or the year after even three or five years, but it’s looking at 10, 20, 30 years, because that’s the way retirement works these days. For most people, they’re in generally good health, they can they can see retirement, again, three or four decades worth.

Mark Rowlette

Absolutely. I’ve been doing this for 25 years. And I have, I probably have, 10 – 12 clients that have been retired for pretty much the whole 25 years that I’ve been in this business. I’ve obviously accumulated and gathered more clients along the way. But from the very beginning, I have clients that were either just about to retire or were already retired when I started in the business, who are still retired, still with us, still actively doing things in the community.

So they needed money, right? They didn’t anticipate living for 10 years, and then that was it. They didn’t know how long they were going to live. So we set up strategies that would make sure that they didn’t

run out of money, which is the point.

It sounds like a broken record. But it’s really important to reiterate that everyone’s situation is different. Don’t go based off of the rule of thumb, because that’s it’s just too critical. It’s too big of a decision. It’s too much involved in it. There’s too much that could go wrong by following the rule of thumb. You want to have a customized strategy. Build a plan that’s specifically designed for you or you and your family’s needs, to make sure that anything that could potentially happen, has been addressed, has some sort of a safety net, or a safety valve feature involved in it.

So that’s what we’re out to do – try and help people. We spend a lot of time, doom and gloom stress testing, worst case scenarios, because I think it’s really important. It’s all well and good to talk about all the wonderful things that can happen. But let’s talk about the bad things, the negatives that can potentially happen. And try not to ignore things that people probably haven’t thought about for their whole working lives. Because, during your working life, the big thing that you’re doing is putting money away. In retirement, you’re pulling it in. So the sequence of how you make money (it’s called a sequence of returns) is completely different when you’re accumulating money than when you start taking money out of those accounts.

Host Jordan Rich

That point is especially brought home by COVID-19. No one saw it coming. No one in in the lay community that’s not a scientist somewhere in a lab, but no one saw it coming. And that impacted everything everywhere.

Just a reminder that if you’d like to set up that no obligation 15-Minute Strategy Phone Call, it’s as simple as a phone call. 781-836-4214 to make the appointment, or go to RetireSouthShore.com. It’s a terrific vehicle that’s helped a lot of people and continues to help a lot of people.

So you’re talking here about the stress test. It’s so important, and taxes are such a huge part of this. And I know we can’t give tax advice here. But we do have someone you do have someone in tow who is ideally suited to help people with their tax structure going forward.

Mark Rowlette

It’s critically important to have your tax strategy created and look at your lifetime tax bill versus just trying to reduce your tax bill for the previous year when filing your return. That in itself is as important as the money that you’re going to make on your money in retirement.

So you’re right when we can’t give tax advice, we give tax strategies. But our CPA and her firm do an amazing job helping clients actually do the filings of things. Part of the All Hands Analysis is looking at what your accounts are, how they’re qualified from a tax standpoint, when you’re going to need to start spending them, when you’re going to have to start spending them. You should be seeing if there’s any opportunity to take advantage of the current tax code to reduce your tax liability, both now and for the rest of your life or your family’s lives.

The rules have dramatically changed as to how those accounts those tight 401Ks and IRAs are

passed on to the next generation, how they’re going to continue to tax them for you. So it makes sense to take a look at what you’ve done. If you have built a strategy or built a retirement plan in the course of the last four or five years, things have changed. Even if you did it last year, things have changed. Everything continues to evolve and change, so you have to stay on top of that. Part of our process is to bring everyone that a person would need under one roof to make sure that everyone’s on the same page.

Our client is not having to explain this to five different professionals or be losing some stuff in translation or maybe making some mistake along the way because we didn’t explain it correctly to a person. We want our clients to be, not “involved”, but we want them to be in cruise control in an audit almost in a like an autopilot when they go into retirement so they can focus on truly the things that are much more important than the dollars and cents Obviously that creates the money to be able to do the stuff you want to do. But you shouldn’t have to worry about it in retirement.

Host Jordan Rich

Love the term cruise control. I remember it well, when I used to use it. I don’t use it much anymore on the roads, but I’ll use it in retirement. No question. And the other important point is, this is not something that’s “one and done”. I mean, you’re constantly checking the national stories that affect everybody’s income. And you’re also working closely with clients on a regular basis, maybe quarterly checking in and giving updates that kind of stuff.

Mark Rowlette

Yes, we try to stay as connected with our clients as possible. There’s no “cut-and-dried” fixed agenda that we will meet you X amount of times each year, but because if a client needs something, they need something, right.

We want to encourage any sort of communication with them, but we try to meet with them on a quarterly basis just to stay on top of what’s going on in their world. I think it’s the right thing to do. It’s also really good for business because clients really appreciate not being forgotten. Too many clients are forgotten by other firms, which is good for us.

So we try to make sure that we maintain really good communication with them. From every standpoint, I mean, you spend so much time with these husbands and wives or individuals that you get to

Anticipate wanting to hear about a wedding, wanting to hear about a grandchild, stuff that’s going on in their world that really has nothing to do with what we do. But just you build friendships with them. And I think that’s really important with people who have trusted you with their life savings.

Host Jordan Rich

Absolutely. Also, we should remind people, (and we tell you during the show of course but you can check it on RetireSouthShore.com) there is a series of workshops, a series of seminars that are available, free of charge, you can sign up and register for them at fine establishments, all very very top of the line and safe. Though, check those out. Also the podcast we have over 100 podcasts that are available to you on just about every subject under the sun. Go to anywhere you find your podcasts and get those Retire South Shore Radio and of course, the newsletter which is becoming more popular, so it’s all there, Mark, we are plumb out of time. Thank you so much. Appreciate the info on the 4% rule and much more as always you take care.

Mark Rowlette
You too. Take care have a great weekend.

Host Jordan Rich

This radio show may contain concepts that have legal accounting and tax implications. It is not intended to provide legal accounting, tax or investment advice. By contacting our company, you may be offered information regarding insurance and fixed annuity products. Annuity guarantees rely on the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurance. Any comments regarding safe and secure investments and guaranteed income streams refer only to fixed insurance products. They do not refer in any way to securities or investment advisory products. Fixed insurance and annuity product guarantees are subject to the claims-paying ability of the issuing company.

Narrator

You’ve been listening to Retire South Shore Radio, a presentation of South Shore Retirement Services for the latest on free seminars. To obtain a report or to set up a consultation please visit RetireSouthShore.com Stay tuned for more real-world retirement solutions – RetireSouthShore.com.

You may think you’ll be paying less in taxes in retirement. But what if that isn’t true with the national debt out of control approaching $30 trillion? It’s safe to say we’re all going to be paying for it. If you’re about to enter retirement, you may have accounts that have not yet been taxed. It’s time to strategize just how to make the most of your hard-earned savings. Here’s Mark Rowlette, founder and President of the South Shore Retirement Services.

Mark Rowlette

Consistent returns are critically important during your retirement. But I would argue that tax management and tax strategy is equally as important. It’s not just about reducing your tax bill this year. It’s about minimizing and being smart with your total lifetime tax bill and that takes preparation.

Narrator

Schedule your FREE 15-Minute Strategy Call today and get helpful answers to your retirement questions. Visit RetireSouthShore.com.